Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.702489 2.889273 3.089434 3.321100 3.583396 3.873036 4.219698
2025-02-23 2.421176 2.671185 2.954119 3.302163 3.724764 4.229546 4.891508
2025-03-02 2.235258 2.517827 2.849575 3.275490 3.819877 4.510854 5.487884
2025-03-09 2.097386 2.399813 2.764987 3.249866 3.896086 4.759763 6.066304
2025-03-16 1.996073 2.313988 2.707092 3.244494 3.987924 5.030090 6.713541
2025-03-23 1.930830 2.265899 2.689605 3.285360 4.140533 5.399524 7.582417
2025-03-30 1.840806 2.178954 2.613423 3.236873 4.156642 5.562399 8.141963
2025-04-06 1.760823 2.099694 2.541105 3.185874 4.160543 5.701998 8.687117
2025-04-13 1.676582 2.010114 2.449002 3.098669 4.099095 5.723860 9.009713
2025-04-20 1.641969 1.984536 2.442199 3.133426 4.228595 6.083243 10.110769
2025-04-27 1.619386 1.973516 2.454110 3.195487 4.406583 6.554879 11.625719
2025-05-04 1.595873 1.959643 2.460505 3.248576 4.574093 7.035410 13.376019
2025-05-11 1.548723 1.911606 2.416231 3.221218 4.603462 7.257023 14.568670
2025-05-18 1.507038 1.869528 2.378517 3.201553 4.644335 7.510295 16.001046
2025-05-25 1.466797 1.827785 2.339088 3.176070 4.671407 7.738502 17.500351
2025-06-01 1.429629 1.788940 2.302024 3.151717 4.697600 7.969450 19.182113
2025-06-08 1.399850 1.759544 2.277685 3.146612 4.759388 8.295527 21.531076
2025-06-15 1.382845 1.747900 2.279551 3.185426 4.910510 8.873798 25.699074
2025-06-22 1.346385 1.706493 2.233783 3.139372 4.886414 8.998403 27.720028
2025-06-29 1.311320 1.666095 2.188075 3.090905 4.853075 9.093489 29.743197
2025-07-06 1.269940 1.615276 2.124463 3.007971 4.741561 8.955683 30.142857
2025-07-13 1.257166 1.606518 2.126417 3.041035 4.877645 9.548668 36.891440
2025-07-20 1.250679 1.606805 2.142466 3.100043 5.076306 10.389184 48.866758